Quantum Utility, Advantage and Supremacy

- Overview

Quantum utility, advantage, and supremacy mark different levels of quantum computer capability and usefulness. 

Quantum supremacy refers to a quantum computer solving a problem that no classical computer could possibly replicate. 

Quantum advantage is the more practical and significant goal, where quantum computers outperform classical computers for specific, useful, real-world tasks. 

Quantum utility signifies the current phase of progress, focusing on solving some practical problems, even if they aren't yet commercially viable or a massive leap from classical computing. 

A. Quantum Supremacy: 

1. Definition:

• A quantum computer performs a task that is, in principle, impossible for any classical computer to complete. 

2. Characteristics:

• The tasks used to demonstrate supremacy may not have any practical or commercial value.
• It does not require error correction for its results to be useful.
• It's an extreme demonstration of quantum computation's theoretical capabilities. 

3. Example:

• In 2019, Google claimed quantum supremacy by performing a calculation in minutes that would have taken a supercomputer 10,000 years, although later work showed classical algorithms could do it faster.

B. Quantum Advantage: 

1. Definition:

• A quantum computer solves a practical, useful problem that is beyond the capability of classical computers.

2. Characteristics:

• The focus is on real-world problems, with relevance for commercial activity.
• It often requires quantum error correction to ensure the results are reliable and useful.
• Can refer to benefits beyond speed, such as efficiency or energy usage.

3. Example:

• Simulating complex materials to discover new properties or developing new drugs are examples of tasks where quantum advantage would be valuable.

C. Quantum Utility: 

1. Definition:

• A quantum computer begins to solve some practical problems, marking a significant shift in computing.

2. Characteristics:

• It represents a step toward achieving broader quantum advantage.
• It's an evolutionary path, rather than an immediate light switch, with progress happening over time.
• Early adopters of quantum computing may gain market advantages as useful applications emerge.

3. Example:

• Advances like IBM's R2 Heron processor, which is faster and capable of handling complex computations for research, signal the dawn of quantum utility.

Please refer to the following for more information:

• Wikipedia: Quantum Computing

- Levels of Quantum Computing Usefulness

Quantum computing harnesses quantum mechanics to solve problems too complex for classical computers, though the technology is not yet ready for widespread use. 

A quantum computer achieves "supremacy" by outperforming classical computers on any task, not necessarily a useful one, while "utility" signifies it works with a practical advantage. While experts estimate many quantum computers will be operational by 2030, full-fledged hardware and software for complex problems are expected around 2035, but organizations should begin planning for future applications now. 

1. What is Quantum Computing?

• Fundamental Principle: Quantum computing utilizes the principles of quantum mechanics, such as superposition and entanglement, to perform computations in a fundamentally different way than classical computers.
• Problem-Solving: It aims to tackle complex problems that are intractable for even the most powerful supercomputers, including areas like drug discovery, supply chain optimization, and financial modeling.

2. Levels of Quantum Computing Usefulness: 

• Quantum Supremacy: A quantum computer solves a task faster than any classical computer, even if the task itself isn't currently useful.
• Quantum Utility: The quantum computer performs a task effectively and practically, demonstrating a genuine advantage over classical computers for that application.

3. Current Status and Future Outlook:

• Still in Development: The field of quantum computing is still in its early stages, with fundamental research and development ongoing to build more sophisticated and stable machines.
• Hardware and Software Gaps: While McKinsey projects 5,000 operational quantum computers by 2030, the sophisticated hardware and software needed for handling the most complex problems are not anticipated until 2035 or later.
• Strategic Planning: Despite the long-term horizon, organizations are encouraged to start thinking now about how to leverage quantum technology to solve real-world business challenges.

4. Why Start Planning Now?

• Proactive Advantage: Organizations that begin exploring potential quantum applications now can gain a competitive edge when the technology becomes more mature.
• Understanding the Landscape: Researching and understanding the potential of quantum computing can help businesses prepare for the seismic shifts it may bring to various sectors.

- Quantum Utility vs. Quantum Supremacy

Quantum supremacy demonstrates a quantum computer solving any problem impossible for classical computers, regardless of practical use. 

In contrast, quantum utility is the ability of quantum computers to provide practical, beneficial, and accurate solutions to scientific and commercial problems that exceed the capabilities of current classical methods. 

Utility is a measure of real-world usefulness, whereas supremacy is a demonstration of computational power for a specific problem. 

1. Quantum Supremacy:

3. Key Difference: 

The key distinction is practical application. While a quantum computer might achieve "supremacy" by solving a highly theoretical, complex problem, "utility" refers to its ability to perform a task that provides concrete, useful, and economically valuable outcomes for society and various industries.

- Quantum Supremacy vs. Quantum Advantage

Quantum supremacy is the demonstration that a quantum computer can solve a specific problem, no matter how useless, that is practically impossible for a classical supercomputer to solve. 

Quantum advantage refers to the point where a quantum computer can solve a useful, real-world problem more efficiently or accurately than any classical computer. 

Key differences include that supremacy doesn't require quantum error correction (QEC) and lacks commercial relevance, whereas advantage does require QEC for practical application and is highly relevant for commerce.  

1. Quantum Supremacy: 

• Definition: A quantum computer performs a task that is fundamentally impossible for a classical supercomputer to complete in a reasonable timeframe.
• Usefulness:The problem solved may have no practical application or commercial value.
• QEC: Quantum error correction (QEC) is not a requirement for demonstrating quantum supremacy.
• Milestone: It serves as a scientific milestone to prove the theoretical power of quantum computers.

2. Quantum Advantage:

• Definition:A quantum computer provides a solution to a practical, real-world problem that is faster or more accurate than any classical computer.
• Usefulness:The task must have practical utility and commercial relevance, such as in machine learning, physics, or economics.
• QEC:For the results to be useful and reliable in a practical sense, quantum error correction (QEC) is generally required.
• Milestone:It is considered a technological breakthrough that can change industries by solving previously intractable problems.

3. In essence: 

• Supremacyis about demonstrating quantum capability in principle on any problem.
• Advantageis about applying that capability to solve real-world problems with significant impact.

[International Commerce Center, Hong Kong - Civil Engineering Discoveries]

- The Ultimate Goals of Quantum Computers

The key difference between quantum supremacy, quantum advantage, and quantum utility lies in their scope and practical value. 

Quantum supremacy is a narrow, theoretical achievement, while quantum advantage and utility represent progressively more practical, real-world benefits for users. 

The industry's focus is shifting from simply demonstrating theoretical prowess toward achieving tangible usefulness. 

A. Quantum supremacy: 

1. Definition: 

• A quantum computer solves a specific, non-useful task faster than the fastest classical supercomputer. The benchmark is a theoretical "best possible" classical performance, which can be improved upon over time. 

2. Key characteristics:

• Not practical: The problem solved is often a contrived or academic one with no immediate use in business or science.
• Demonstration of power: It serves as a benchmark of raw computational power, proving that a quantum computer can achieve something a classical one cannot.
• A "moving target": As classical computers and algorithms continue to improve, a quantum supremacy claim can be overturned, as has happened in the past.

3. Significance: 

• While impressive, quantum supremacy is viewed less as a goal in itself and more as a milestone on the path toward more practical applications.

B. Quantum advantage: 

1. Definition: 

• A quantum computer solves a useful, real-world problem faster, more cheaply, or more accurately than all known classical methods. It moves beyond a theoretical feat to provide a demonstrable, tangible benefit. 

2. Key characteristics:

• Practical applications: It involves tasks with real-world value, such as financial modeling, drug discovery, or logistics optimization.
• Significant benefit: The quantum solution must offer a meaningful improvement over the best available classical method for a specific problem.
• Requires error correction: To provide useful, accurate results, achieving a quantum advantage requires more advanced quantum error correction than a supremacy demonstration.

3. Significance: 

• This is a major goal for the industry and will likely appear incrementally, one practical problem at a time, rather than in a single breakthrough moment.

C. Quantum utility:

1. Definition: 

• The stage where quantum computers provide useful, reliable, and accurate solutions for real-world problems that are beyond the reach of classical brute-force methods. Unlike quantum advantage, utility does not require a proven speed-up over all classical approximation methods.

2. Key characteristics:

• Beyond classical limits: A quantum computer can perform calculations that are impossible or too difficult for simple classical methods, offering a new tool for scientific exploration.
• Reliable and accurate: Even without a clear speed-up, a quantum system can provide reliable results where classical approximations are uncertain.
• Stepping stone to advantage: The era of quantum utility is an important stepping stone toward quantum advantage, allowing researchers to explore problems and develop algorithms on capable hardware.

3. Significance: 

• Quantum utility represents the arrival of quantum computers as valuable scientific and research tools that offer a meaningful and reliable alternative for certain complex problems.

- Accelerating Quantum Commercialization

Those who have studied quantum computing deeply know that it will have a huge impact on IT, business, economy and society. The future of quantum supercomputing mainframes with exponential acceleration, error-correcting qubits, and a quantum internet will be a very different world than the one we live in today. 

That said, similar to the classic mainframes of the 1960s, quantum mainframes are likely to remain large and fragile machines for the foreseeable future, requiring ultra-low temperatures and complex control systems to operate. Even when fully operational, there will only be a handful of quantum hosts in supercomputing and cloud computing facilities around the world. 

The quantum computing industry would be better off if it mimicked the success of classical computers. When personal computers came out in the late 1970s and early 1980s, IBM and other companies were able to introduce new models each year that offered incremental improvements over previous models. This market dynamic drives the development of Moore's Law. 

Quantum computing needs similar market dynamics to scale and thrive. Investors can't be expected to keep throwing money at them, waiting for quantum computers to overtake a handful of supercomputers. The annual release of new, improved and more "useful" quantum computers will provide the assurance of revenue, driving the long-term investments needed to realize the technology's full potential. 

With a steady stream of useful quantum systems available for a variety of applications, there's no reason to wait in line to handle computations on one of the few large-scale quantum hosts available in the cloud when you can have a quantum processor right next to you. You, integrate with your existing classic systems. Your application may require instant computing that "quantum in the cloud" cannot deliver in time, or you may have to rely on local or on-board computing if cloud access is not available.

1. Limitations of Current Mainframe Approaches: 

Current large-scale quantum supercomputer models face the following challenges: 

• Fragility and Complexity: Similar to early classical mainframes, current quantum computers are large and fragile, requiring ultra-low temperatures and complex control systems to operate reliably.
• Limited Access: For the foreseeable future, only a handful of quantum computers will be available in supercomputing and cloud facilities worldwide, severely limiting their access. 
• Investor Hesitation: The prospect of relying on a few mainframe computers does not provide the stable revenue stream needed to justify and sustain long-term investment.

2. Advantages of a Diversified Market Model: 

A diversified market approach, similar to the traditional personal computer market, is based on the following advantages:

• Incentivizing Investment: The annual release of new, improved, and "more practical" quantum computers will generate stable revenue. This will provide investor security and fund the long-term research and development required to fully realize the technology's potential.
• Spurring Innovation: This market dynamic will create a feedback loop of innovation, similar to how the classical computer market led to the exponential growth described by Moore's Law.
• Enabling New Applications: The emergence of local and onboard quantum processors will enable "instant computing" applications that cloud-based quantum solutions cannot deliver on time. This also serves users in environments without cloud access.
• Integration with existing systems: Personal quantum processors can be integrated with existing classical systems, extending their use cases beyond the limited reach of large cloud-based mainframes.

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